SEM

The Society for Economic Measurement 

Home Conferences
Fellows Officers of SEM
Affiliated Journals and Monograph Series
Contacts and Membership

2014 Conference Program
University of Chicago, August 18-20, 2014


Also see the Conference Schedule

Becker Friedman

Register Now

Plenary Session Details

James J. Heckman, Opening Remarks, Room Harper 104ABC, Monday August 18,                   8:30 am - 8:40 am.
    Becker Friedman Institute Research Council Member
    SEM Executive Committee Member at Large
    University of Chicago; Geary Institute (University College Dublin)
        Chair:  Paul Schreyer,  Deputy Director, OECD Statistics Directorate, Paris

William A. Barnett, Presidential Address, Room Harper 104ABC, Monday August 18,           10:45 am - 11:45 pm
    University of Kansas; Center for Financial Stability (NY City); IC2 Institute (U. of Texas at Austin)
    Title:  "Milton Friedman and the Positive Methodology of Economic Measurement."  [Slides]
        Chair:  Francis X. Diebold, University of Pennsylvania

        Discussant:  Apostolos Serletis, University of Calgary, Canada[Slides]                                           11:45 am - 12:15 pm                 
John Hassler, Keynote Lecture, Room Harper 104ABC, Monday August 18,                              3:00 pm - 4:00 pm
    Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University

    Title:  "Climate Change --- Causes, Effects, and Policies."    [Slides]
          Chair:  Myrna Wooders, Vanderbilt University

Francis X. Diebold, Keynote Lecture, Room Harper 104ABC, Tuesday August 19,                 11:15 am - 12:15 pm
    University of Pennsylvania
    Title:  "Improved Measurement of U. S. Real GDP."
   [Slides]
        Chair:  Esfandiar Maasoumi, Emory University

Jacques Mairesse, Keynote Lecture, Room Harper 104ABC, Tuesday August 19,                      3:00 pm - 4:00 pm
    CREST (ENSAE, Paris); UNU-MERIT (Maastricht University, Maastricht)

    Title:  "Assessing the Outcomes of Research Public Fundings."
        Chair:  Ernst R. Berndt, MIT

Karl Shell, Plenary Dinner Speaker, Quadrangle Faculty Club, Tuesday August 19,                   6:30 pm - 8:30 pm
    Cornell University

    Title:  "Chicago and Sunspots."  [Slides]
        Chair:  Conchita d'Ambrosio, Université du Luxembourg

Dale Jorgenson, Keynote Lecture, Room Harper 104ABC, Wednesday August 20,                  11:15 pm - 12:15 pm
    Harvard University
    Title:  "Confidence Intervals for Policy Evaluation."   [Slides]
        Chair:  W. Erwin Diewert, University of British Columbia


James J. Heckman, Keynote Lecture, Room Harper 104ABC, Wednesday August 20,                3:00 pm - 4:00 pm
    University of Chicago; Geary Institute (University College Dublin)
    Title:  "The Market and Nonmarket Returns to Education." [Slides]
       Chair:  Dale Jorgenson, Harvard University

Parallel Invited Session Details


8:00 am – 8:30 am      Registration and coffee

8:30 am – 8:40 am      Opening remarks (James J. Heckman)


Parallel Sessions A, Monday, August 18, 2014, 8:45 am - 10:15 am

Session Title:  Innovations in Econometric Measurement
Organizer:  Esfandiar Maasoumi, Emory University, USA
Chair:  Esfandiar Maasoumi, Emory University, USA
Room:  Harper C01

Authors
Title
Esfandiar Maasoumi* (Emory University, USA), Jeffrey Racine (McMaster University, Canada) A Solution to Aggregation and an Application to MultiDimensional "Well-Being" Frontiers
Steve Spear* (Carnegie Mellon University, USA)
Errors in Variables
Rosa Matzkin* (UCLA, USA)
On Independence Conditions in Nonseparable Models:  Observable and Unobservable Instruments
Febrio Kacaribu* (Baylor University, USA)
Analysis of Impulse Response Measurement Scenarios Induced by Nonlinearity in a DSGE Model
*Presenter

Session Title:  Contemporary Topics in Economic Measurement for Turkey and G-6 Countries
Organizer:  Sadullah Çelik, Mamara University, Turkey
Chair:  Nazim Engin, Piri Reis University, Turkey
Room:  Harper C02

Authors
Title
Orcun Arif Sőylemerz* (Marmara University, Turkey) Volatility Dependent Nonlinear Relationship between the Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
Nazim Engin* (Piri Reis University, Turkey),  Sadullah Çelik (Marmara University University, Turkey)
Wavelet Analysis of Interest Rate Dynamics for G-6 Countries
Bilgehan Aldemir* (Yeditepe University, Turkey)

New Major Leading Economic Indicators for Turkish Economy
Orcun Arif Sőylemerz* (Marmara University, Turkey) Nowcasting Turkish GDP with Soft Data
*Presenter

Session Title:  Measuring Labor's Share
Organizer:  John Ruser, Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA
Chair:  John Ruser, Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA
Room:  Harper C03

Authors
Title
Michael Elsby (U. of Edinburgh, UK), Bart Hobjin* (San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, USA), Aysegul Sahin (New York Federal Reserve Bank, USA) Alternative Measures of the U. S. Labor Share
Robert Inklaar* (University of Groningen, Netherlands)
Global Labor Share: Measurement and Trends from the Penn World Table
Michael Giandrea* (Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA) and Jay Stewart (Bureau of Labor Statistics, USA)
BLS Measures of U.S. Labor Share: Current Practice and Possible Extensions
David Lenze* (Bureau of Economic Analysis, USA)
Labor's Share of Income and the 2013 Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts
*Presenter


10:15 am – 10:45 am  Coffee break

10:45 am – 12:15 pm  Plenary Session (Presidential Address)

       10:45 am – 11:45 am Presidential address (William A. Barnett)
       11:45 am – 12:15 pm Discussant (Apostolos Serletis)

12:15 pm – 1:15 pm  Lunch


Parallel Sessions B, Monday, August 18, 2014, 1:15 pm - 2:45 pm

Session Title:  Mind the Gap: Exploring Puzzles in Money, Output, and Liquidity
Organizer:  Jane M. Binner, U. of Birmingham, UK
Chair:  Jane M. Binner, U. of Birmingham, UK
Room:  Harper C01

Authors
Title
Michael Belongia (U. of Mississippi, USA), Jane M. Binner (U. of Birmingham, UK), Logan Kelly  (U. of Wisconsin, River Falls, USA), Jonathan Tepper* (Nottingham Trent U., UK)
Implementing Monetary Policy: Were the Central Banks Correct in Abandoning the Monetary Aggregates?
John Keating (U. of Kansas, USA), Logan Kelly (U. of Wisconsin, River Falls, USA), Lee Smith (Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, USA), Victor J. Valcarcel* (Texas Tech. University, USA)
A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions
Logan Kelly* (U. of Wisconsin, River Falls, USA)
Why Real GDP Doesn't Add UP:  Theory Consistent Sub-aggregation
Richard Anderson* (Lindenwood U., USA), Jane M. Binner* (U. of Birmingham, UK), Bjorn Hagstromer (Stockholm Business School, Sweden), Birger Nilsson (Lund University, Sweden)
Does Commonality in Illiquidity Matter to Investors?
*Presenter

Session Title:  Measuring and Interpreting Trends in the Housing Market
Organizer: Robert Hill, University of Graz, Austria
Chair:  Robert Hill, University of Graz, Austria
Room:  Harper C02

Authors
Title
Steven C. Bourassa* (University of Louisville, USA), Martin Hoesli (University of Geneva, Switzerland), Elias Oikarinen (University of Turku, Finland)
Measuring House Price Bubbles
Leonard I. Nakamura* (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, USA)
House-Price Expectations, Alternative Mortgage Products, and Default
Thomas G. Thibodeau* (U. of Colorado at Boulder, USA)
Idiosyncratic Risk of House Prices: Evidence from 26 Million Home Sales
Chihiro Shimizu* (Reitaku University, Japan)
Sticky Housing Rents and Monetary Policy: the Japanese Experience
*Presenter

Session Title:  Measuring Individual and Social Well-Being
Organizer:  Conchita D'Ambrosio, Université du Luxembourg, Luxembourgh
Chair:  Conchita D'Ambrosio, Université du Luxembourg, Luxembourgh
Room:  Harper C03

Authors
Title
Marek Kosny (Wroclaw University of Economics, Poland), Jacques Silber* (Bar-Ilan University, Israel), Gaston Yalonetzky (Leeds University, UK)
On the Measurement of Multi-Period Income Mobility
Gordon Anderson* (University of Toronto, Canada), Teng Wah Leoy (St. Francis Xavier University, Canada), Paul Anand (The Open University, UK)
Multi-Dimensional Wellbeing Assessment: A General Method for Index Construction with an Application to Multivariate Deprivation Measurement
Andrew E. Clark* (Paris School of Economics, France), Conchita D'Ambrosio (Université du Luxembourg, Luxembourg), Simone Ghislandi (Bocconi University, Italy)
Adaptation to Poverty in Long-Run Panel Data
Walter Bossert (Universityh of Montreal, Canada), Conchita D'Ambrosio*, Universite du Luxembourg, Luxembourg)
Relative Measures of Individual Insecurity from the Labour Market
*Presenter


3:00 pm – 4:00 pm     Plenary Session (John Hassler)

4:00 pm – 4:30 pm     Coffee break


Parallel Sessions C, Monday, August 18, 2014, 4:30 pm - 6:00 pm

Session Title:  Reexamining Monetarist Principles
Organizer:  John Keating, University of Kansas, USA
Chair:  John Keating, University of Kansas, USA
Room:  Harper C01

Authors
Title
Marcelle Chauvet* (University of California at Riverside, USA)
Monetary Policy in the Short and Long Run:  the Quantity Theory Revisited
Joshua Hendrickson* (University of Mississippi, USA)
An Evaluation of Friedman's Monetary Instability Hypothesis
John Keating* (University of Kansas, USA), Lee Smith (Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, USA)
Determinacy and Indeterminacy in Monetary Policy Rules with Money
Lee Smith* (Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, USA)
A Working-Solution to Working-Capital Indeterminacy
*Presenter


Session Title:  Risk Measurement
Organizer:  Travis Nesmith, Federal Reserve Board, USA
Chair:  Travis Nesmith, Federal Reserve Board, USA
Room:  Harper C02

Authors
Title
Travis Nesmith* (Federal Reserve Board, USA) A Tale of Two Measures: Economic and Risk
R. Tyrrell Rockafeller* (University of Washington, USA)
Measuring Risk and Regret in Objectives and Constraints
Rama Cont* (Imperial College London, UK)
Robust Risk Measurement
Marco Avellaneda* (New York University, USA)
Modeling Liquidity Risk and Implications for Clearing
*Presenter

Session Title:  Evaluation of the Returns to R&D Subsidies
Organizer:  Pierre Mohnen, Mastricht University and UNU-MERIT, Netherlands
Chair:  Pierre Mohnen, Mastricht University and UNU-MERIT, Netherlands
Room:  Harper C03

Authors
Title
Mila Koehler* (KU Leuven, Belgium), Dirk Czarnitzki (KU Leuven, Belgium), Elena Huergo (Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain), Pierre Mohnen (Maastricht U., Netherlands), Sebastian Pacher (Maastricht U., Netherlands), Tuomas Takalo (Bank of Finland, Finland), Otto Tolvanen (KU Leuven, Belgium)
The Effectiveness of R&D Subsidies:  An International Comparison
Dirk Czarnitzki* (KU Leuven, Belgium), Julie Delamonte (KU Leuven, Belgium) Incorporating Innovation Subsidies in the CDM Framework:  Empirical Evidence from Belgium
Tuomas Takalo (Bank of Finland, Finland), Tanja Tanayama (National Audit Office of Finland, Finland), Otto Tolvanen* (KU Leuven, Belgium) Innovation Policy Reform
Pere Arqué-Castells* (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain), Pierre Mohnen (Maastricht U., Netherlands) Sunk Costs, Extensive R&D Subsidies and Permanent Inducement Effects
*Presenter


7:00 pm   Executive Committee Dinner, Piccolo Mondo Restaurant, 1642 E. 56th Street, Hyde Park, Chicago.
Planning to attend: Bill Barnett, Ernie Berndt, Erwin Diewert, Larry Goodman, Jim Heckman, Jacques Mairesse, Paul Schreyer, Karl Shell, Steve Spear.



Parallel Sessions D, Tuesday, August 19, 2014, 9:15 am - 10:45 am

Session Title:  Measurement of Risk Transmission in Financial and Non-Financial Networks 
Organizer:  Ilja Kristian Kavonius, University of Eastern Finland, Finland, and European Central Bank, Germany
Chair:  Ilja Kristian Kavonius, University of Eastern Finland, Finland, and European Central Bank, Germany
Room:  Harper C01

Authors
Title
Frank Betz (European Investment Bank, Luxembourg), Nikolaus Hautsch (University of Vienna, Austria), Tuomas Peltonen* (European Central Bank, Germany), Melanie Schienle (University of Hannover, Germany)
Measuring Systemic Risk Contributions of European Banks
Kimmo Soramäki* (Financial Network Analytics, Finland), Samantha Cook (Financial Network Analytics, Finland), and Alan Laubsch (Financial Network Analytics, Finland) A Network-Based Method for Visual Identification of Systemic Risk
Ben Craig* (Deutsche Bundesbank, Germany) and Martin Saldias Zambrana (Banco de Portugal, Portugal) Spatial Dependence and Data Driven Networks of International Banks
Olli Castrén* (Brevan Howard) and Ilja Kristian Kavonius (University of Eastern Finland, Finland; European Central Bank, Germany) Transmission of Shocks in the Integrated Accounts Framework
*Presenter

Session Title:  Recent Developments in Index Number Theory and Practice
Organizer:  W. Erwin Diewert, University of British Columbia, Canada
Chair:  W. Erwin Diewert, University of British Columbia, Canada
Room:  Harper C02

Authors
Title
Paul Armknecht* (International Monetary Fund, USA), Mick Silver (International Monetary Fund, USA) Post-Laspeyres: The Case for a New Formula for Compiling Consumer Price Indexes
Kevin J. Fox* (University of New South Wales, Australia), Iqbal Syed (University of New South Wales, Australia) Price Discounts and the Measurement of Inflation
Robert Hill* (University of Graz, Austria)   A New Approach to Imposing Within-Region Fixity in the International Comparisons Program
Erwin Diewert* (University of British Columbia, Canada) Alternative Measures of OECD Output Growth and Inflation
*Presenter


Session Title:  Revision and Macroeconomics

Organizer:  Simon van Norden, HEC Montréal, Canada
Chair:  Simon van Norden, HEC Montréal, Canada
Room:  Harper C03

Authors
Title
Miguel Casares (Universidad Pública de Navarra, Spain),
Jesús Vázquez* (Universidad del País Vasco, Spain)
Data Revisions in the Estimation of DSGE Models
Ana Beatriz Galvão* (University of Warwick, UK) Forecasting with DSGE Models in the Presence of Data Revisions
Alain Hecq (Maastricht University, Netherlands), Jan P.A.M. Jacobs (University of Groningen, Netherlands), Michalis P. Stamatogiannis* (University of Bath, UK) Testing for News and Noise in Non-stationary Time Series Subject to Multiple Revisions
Jan P.A.M. Jacobs (University of Groningen, Netherlands), Samad Sarferaz (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Switzerland), Jan-Egbert Sturm (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Switzerland), Simon van Norden* (HEC Montréal, Canada) Modeling Multivariate Data Revisions
*Presenter



10:45 am – 11:15 am  Coffee break

11:15 am – 12:15 pm  Plenary Session (Francis X. Diebold)

12:15 am – 1:15 pm   Lunch


Parallel Sessions E, Tuesday, August 19, 2014, 1:15 pm - 2:45 pm

Session Title:  Measurement of Systemic Risk 
Organizer:  Ester Faia, Goethe University, Germany
Chair:  Loriana Pelizzon, Goethe University, Germany
Room:  Harper C01

Authors
Title
Inaki Aldasoro* (Goethe University, Germany) and Ignazio Angeloni (European Central Bank, Germany)